Profilo di 斌I can fly in the sky!FotoBlogElenchiAltro  |  Strumenti Guida |
|
26 aprile Economist focus-Womenomics revisited
[2007-4-21]Economics focus－Womenomics revisited Finance & Economics 译者：韩斌
Economics focus 经济焦点 Womenomics revisited 女性经济归来 Apr 19th 2007 From The Economist print edition If more women were in paid work, the world could be much richer 如果有更多的女性参加有酬工作，世界将更富裕 MEN like to believe that they run the world. They are not deluding themselves. In politics, men still dominate most of the planet's governments and legislatures. In economic life, they rule its boardrooms and have most of the best-paid jobs. Women, meanwhile, do by far the greater part of the world's unpaid work. Granted, some details of the canvas are changing: women's share of the workforce is much higher than it was a generation ago, and they comprise the majority of university students in some countries. Nevertheless, it is still a man's world. 男性喜欢认为他们主宰世界。这并不是自欺欺人。在政治方面，男性仍主宰着这个星球上的大部分政府以及立法机构。在经济生活中，他们主宰着董事会，并拥有着大部分报酬最丰厚的工作。而同时女性却做着这个世界绝大部分的无酬工作。当然，一些情况还是有所改变：女性劳动力所占比例与上一代以前相比要高很多。在一些国家她们包括大部分的大学生。然而，这仍然是男性的世界。 And a wasteful one. Were more women in paid employment, according to a run of recent studies, the world would be better off. The waste is surely worse in poor countries than in rich ones. A report this week by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific concludes that sex discrimination costs the region $42 billion-47 billion a year by restricting women's job opportunities. A gap of 30-40 percentage points between men's and women's workforce participation rates is common. The poor state of girls' education costs a further $16 billion-30 billion. And those are just the economic costs, before violence against women and access to health care are counted. 男权世界也是一个浪费极大的世界。根据一项最新研究表明，如果更多的女性获得有偿就业，世界会更富裕。这样的浪费在穷国里比在富国里更严重。本周联合国亚洲及太平洋经济与社会委员会的一份报告推断：限制女性就业机会的性别歧视造成本区域经济损失420亿美元－470亿美元。男女劳动力参与率相差30－40个百分点是很正常的。女童恶劣的受教育情况造成的间接损失高达160亿美元－300亿美元。上述只是经济成本，还没有算上在针对女性暴力以及获得医疗保健的成本。  But rich countries undervalue women as well. Just look at the gap between male and female employment rates in America, Japan and western Europe, as Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs, does in a recent study (see the left-hand chart). In Sweden, where around 70% of females aged 15-64 are in work, the gap is less than five percentage points. In America and Britain it is around a dozen points. In Italy, Japan and Spain it is over 20 points. Suppose, says Mr Daly, that women's employment rates were raised to the same level as men's; and suppose that GDP rose in proportion with employment. Then America's GDP would be 9% higher, the euro zone's would be 13% more, and Japan's would be boosted by 16%. 但在富裕国家中也同样低估女性的价值。只要看看在美国、日本和西欧国家男性和女性就业率之间的差距，正如高盛集团经济学家 凯文.戴利 最近的一项研究（参见左手图）。在瑞典大约有70％的年龄在15－64岁之间的女性在工作，（男性和女性就业率）差距少于5个百分点。在美国和英国大约将近12个百分点。在意大利、日本和西班牙超过20个百分点。戴利先生说，假设女性就业率上升到和男性一样的水平，并且假设国内生产总值增长比率与就业有关。那美国国内生产总值的增长率将高于9％，欧盟将达13％以上，日本将提升到16％。 That may be a bit of an overstatement. Add so many people to the workforce and average productivity would probably fall. Given the chance to work, many women may do so part-time rather than full-time; some men with working partners may make the same choice. Nevertheless, the boost to GDP would still be substantial. Mr Daly notes that were euro-zone productivity raised to American levels—a commonly cited idea—the single-currency club's GDP would rise by only 7%. 那也许有点夸张。增加这么多人成为劳动力，平均生产率可能将下降。如果有工作的机会，女性也许选择去做兼职而不是全职工作。一些有工作伙伴的男性可能做出同样的选择。然而。国内生产总值的增长仍然是有实质性价值的。戴利先生指出，欧盟生产率已经增长到美国的水平（一个常被引用的想法），单一货币体系的国内生产总值将仅仅增长7％。 You might object that looking at GDP itself overstates the benefits. With more women in work, some of what they now do unpaid—caring for children, cleaning, preparing meals—would be bought in. So some work would be counted, and added to GDP, simply because it was supplied in the market not the home. True, says Mr Daly, but only to a limited extent. Pay in child care tends to be low, so the offsetting factor is not very great. Even in Sweden pre-school care accounts for only 1.2% of GDP, a small sum compared with the gains on offer. 你也许反对这样夸大的看待国内生产总值的本身利益。更多的女性在工作，她们中一些现在正无偿照料孩子、打扫、准备饭菜，这些将被计算进来。因此有些工作将被计数，并且增加进国内生产总值，这纯粹是因为在市场上供应的，而不是在家里的。戴利先生说，的确，只能是有限的程度。照料孩子的工资是低的，因此抵消因素并不是很大。即使在瑞典，学前教育护理仅占国内生产总值的1.2％，这与可得收益相比是个小数目。 A taxing question 一个费解的问题 None of this would matter much if low female employment rates and the output forgone were purely a matter of choice. Mr Daly argues that they are not. Many women would like to work, or to work more, if they could find affordable child care; subsidies for child care, not surprisingly, tend to raise the probability that a mother returns to work. And in many countries, second earners (usually women) face higher average tax rates than the main breadwinner. In Sweden, an exception, average tax rates are the same; in Italy and Spain second earners' rates are 60% more than their partners'. Alberto Alesina and Andrea Ichino, two Italian economists, have suggested going further than merely equalising tax rates. Because women's labour supply is more sensitive to tax rates than men's, theory suggests that their rates should be lower—in Italy, they say, as much as 32% lower. 如果低的女性就业率和产出量只是完全的恰到好处的话，则没有什么将是个大问题。戴利先生争辩说，其实它们并不是那样的。很多女性想工作，或者得到更多的工作，如果她们能找到负担的起的孩童照料，补贴孩童照料，不要惊奇，作为母亲的她们将倾向于提升回归工作的可能性。以及在许多国家，第二工资获得者（通常是女性）会面对比主要负担家计的人更高的平均税率。在瑞典除外，平均税率都一样。在意大利和西班牙第二工资获得者的税率比她们的伴侣的税率高60％以上。Alberto Alesina 和 Andrea Ichino是意大利的两位经济学家，他们已经提出比仅仅是均等的税率更长远的建议。他们的理论指出，因为女性的劳动供给对税率的弹性比男性的更富有弹性，在意大利她们的税率应该更低，至少比32％更低。 A higher rate of female employment could help to deal with the difficulties posed by an ageing society. With a higher share of people in work, the ratio of retired people to workers would fall. And Mr Daly argues that it would not reduce fertility rates, as some people may fear. In fact, where the gap between male and female employment rates is small, women tend to have more babies (see the right-hand chart, above). The reason seems to be that in countries where taxes on second earners are high or affordable child care is hard to find, women must often choose between children and work, especially if their incomes are low. Where second earners are not penalised by taxes or where child care is cheap (or subsidised), they can have both. 更高的女性就业率可以帮助解决老龄化社会所造成的困难。因为有更多的人在工作，所以退休者在工作者中的比例将下降。戴利先生争辩道，由于一些人的担心，则这并不能降低高的税率。实际上，男性与女性的就业率之间的差距很小，只是女性倾向于多生几个小孩（见上面的右手图）。原因似乎是：在那些第二工资获得者税率高的或者很难找到负担的起的孩童照料的国家，女性经常必须在孩子与工作之间做出选择，尤其是如果她们的收入很低。在第二工资获得者的税率公平的或者孩童照料是便宜的（或者下降的）地方她们可以同时选择（孩子和工作）。 As Mr Daly says, he is describing a changing picture. Even in Italy and Spain, female employment rates have climbed rapidly in the past decade. A narrowing of the gap between men's and women's employment rates has accounted for half of the rise in the euro area's overall employment rate and for 0.4 points of its 2.1% trend annual increase in GDP since 1995. This has done more for Europe's labour markets, he avers, than have “conventional” reforms. America's female employment rate, meanwhile, has recently declined—perhaps for cyclical reasons. Japan's low rate has not risen much. 正如戴利先生所说，他正在描绘一个正在变化的画面。即使是在意大利和西班牙，女性就业率在过去十年间已快速的爬升。男性就业率与女性就业率之间的差距逐渐减少，占到欧盟地区整体就业率增长的一半，是自从1995年以来以年均增长2.1％趋势的国内生产总值的0.4个点。这比“常规的”改革对欧洲劳动力市场有更多的作用。而与此同时，美国的女性就业率最近却下降了，可能是其周期的原因。日本的低就业率也没有上升多少。 Even with no change in policies, the employment sex gap is likely to close further. Probably the biggest changes are under way in Spain. The participation rates of Spanish women of different ages are similar to France's or Germany's 15 years ago. Those in their 20s are now more likely to work than their American sisters. A continuation of this trend, Mr Daly thinks, may add almost half a percentage point to Spain's annual growth rate over the next ten years, and maybe more if policies change. In the euro area as a whole, a quarter of a point is on offer. 即使没有政策上的改变，不同性别就业率之间的差距有可能进一步缩小。在西班牙进行着可能是最大的改变。西班牙不同年龄的女性的就业率类似于15年前的法国与德国。那些20岁的女性现在比她们的美国姐妹们更有可能参加工作。戴利先生想：这一持续的趋势有可能使得在接下来的十年中西班牙的年均增长率增加几乎50个百分点，如果改变政策的话可能更多。在作为一个整体的欧盟，25个百分点是可以理解的。 The countries with most to do are Italy and Japan. But by the same token they also have most to gain. In Italy, even on recent trends an extra 0.3 points a year of GDP growth may be had. Japan is heading for only an extra tenth of a point, but could gain half a point a year if policies change. Men run the world's economies; but it may be up to women to rescue them. 最想去这样做的国家是意大利和日本。但同样也有最大的收益。在意大利，甚至最近的国内生产总值增长以每年额外0.3个点的趋势增长可能是糟糕的。日本每年有着仅仅为0.1个点的额外增长趋势，但如果政策改变的话，将每年得到0.5个点的盈利。男性主宰世界经济，但可能是由女性来拯救他们。 15 aprile Economics focus－Making less with more
[2007-04-14]Economics focus－Making less with more Economics focus 译者：韩斌 经济焦点 Making less with more 事倍功半 Apr 12th 2007 From The Economist print edition America's productivity growth has slowed. Does that matter? 美国生产率增长速度减慢。这有关系吗？  THE good news about America's economy is that jobs are plentiful despite slower growth and the housing blues. Some 180,000 new jobs were created in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, three-tenths of a percentage point lower than a year ago. With employment and wage growth strong, consumers are unlikely to stop spending and throw the economy into recession. 有关于美国经济的好消息是其就业形势比较充足，尽管其经济增长速度减慢和住房市场的萧条。三月份新增180，000个就业岗位，失业率降至4.4％，低于去年同期水平0.3个百分点。由于就业和工资增长强劲，所以消费者不大可能停止消费以及将经济带入衰退。 That is not all cause for celebration, however. The drop in the jobless rate at the same time as the economy is slowing implies that the growth in productivity—the amount workers produce in an hour—is waning. If this proves to be a permanent shift, slower productivity growth bodes ill for inflation and living standards. 然而那并非是所有值得庆祝的事。在失业率下降的同时经济增长速度放慢意味着生产率（工人每小时的生产量）增长速度正在减慢。如果这被证实为永久性转移，更加缓慢的生产率增长预示着通货膨胀和生活水平的凶兆。 Few associate America with limping productivity. Central to its success over the past decade has been its “productivity miracle”, the sudden acceleration in workers' efficiency in 1995. After advancing at a measly 1.5% per year for more than two decades, productivity growth soared to an average of 2.5% a year in the late 1990s and over 3% a year between 2002 and 2004. 几乎没有人会联想到美国疲软的生产率。过去十年间成功的中心是其在1995年时工人生产效率突然增长的“生产率奇迹”。在以年均增长1.5％的速度增长了二十多年以后，在1990年代后期生产率增长速度猛增到年均增长2.5％，以及在2002年到2004年之间增长速度超过3％。 This spurt set America apart from other rich countries. But between mid-2004 and the end of 2006, the growth in business output per hour outside agriculture, the most common gauge of worker efficiency, slowed to an annual rate of just 1.5%, on average. Judging by the recent jobs figures, its growth in the first few months of 2007 may be lower still. 这突然一阵使得美国与众不同于其他富裕的国家。但是在2004中期到2006年末之间，除了农业以外的每小时商业输出的增长速度（这是最常用的测量工作者效率的方式）减缓至平均率仅为1.5％。根据最近的就业数据，其增长率在2007年头几个月可能更低。 Deciding how worrying this is depends on what lies behind the sluggishness. Productivity growth has two components: a long-term trend (set by the quality of the workforce, the pace of capital investment and the speed of innovation) and more volatile short-term fluctuations driven by the business cycle. Early in an expansion, for instance, productivity takes off temporarily as firms squeeze their existing staff harder before hiring new workers. As an economy slows, it tails off, because firms are loth to sack workers immediately. 判定这令人多担忧取决于迟缓增长的背后是什么。生产率增长包括两个部分：长期趋势（由员工素质、资本投资速度和创新速度决定）和商业周期所致的更加不稳定的短期波动。经济扩张，员工需求增大，企业不愿立即招收更多的工人，加重了对現有职工的利用，生产率提高；经济放缓，对员工的需求減少，企业不会立刻解雇多余的員工，所以员工的生产率降低。 This time, temporary factors are almost certainly playing the biggest role. Not only has the business cycle reached the point at which productivity growth usually slows, it also has several characteristics that may have exacerbated temporary productivity swings. One is the housing bust. Much of the recent weakness in output growth is thanks to the fall in building activity. Yet employment in construction and other housing-related industries has barely budged. It is hard to isolate workers' productivity in residential housing, but Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs estimates that it was 13% lower at the end of 2006 than a year earlier, whereas in the rest of the economy (outside farming) productivity rose by a healthy 2.8%. His analysis spells trouble for the economy's short-term health: once builders stop hoarding workers, the unemployment rate will rise. But there would be scant need to worry about a broad slip in productivity. 现在，几乎可以肯定暂时因素发挥着最大的作用。不仅仅是商业周期到了生产率增长速度减慢这一点，它还有加剧暂时生产率波动的几个特征。一个就是住房市场的破产。由于建筑活动的下降导致许多近日来产出增长上的疲软。就业在建筑和其他与住房市场有关的产业几乎没有转移。很难在与居住有关的住房市场孤立工作者的生产率，但是高盛集团的 简·哈丘斯 估计这在2006年底比一年前低13％，而在其余的经济（除了农业）的生产率增长了2.8％。他的分析道出了经济的短期健康面临的问题：一旦建筑业停止需要工作者，失业率将上升。但也没有必要担心生产率在更多的产业中下降。 Unusually savage company cost-cutting early in this cycle is another reason why recent productivity swings have been so extreme. Robert Gordon of Northwestern University has long argued that much of the improvement in productivity after 2001 was a one-off event as firms tightened their belts after the bursting of the stockmarket bubble. In a new paper* Stephen Oliner, Daniel Sichel and Kevin Stiroh, all of the Federal Reserve, provide more evidence of this. They show that industries which saw the sharpest drop in profits between the late 1990s and 2001 also saw the largest gains in worker productivity after 2001, probably because they were the most reluctant to hire workers. Today's productivity dip may be the mirror image of that, as job growth catches up with output. 最近生产率波动如此激烈的另一个原因就是无理的公司异常地消减成本。西北大学的 罗伯特·戈登 长期争辩道，在2001年以后的许多生产率改进只是一次性的事件，因为企业在股票市场泡沫破灭后开始节衣缩食。在一份新的报告中，斯蒂芬·奥利纳、丹尼尔·西切尔、凯文·斯提洛以及所有的联邦储备银行都提供了更多的证据。他们表示那些遭遇到在1990年代后期与2001年之间的利润急剧下降的企业同时也享受到了在2001年以后生产率提高所带来的巨大利益，大概是因为他们当时最不愿意雇佣工人。如今的生产率下降可能是那个时候的镜像，因为就业增长赶上了出产产量。 An odd business cycle makes it hard to gauge what has happened to America's underlying rate of productivity growth. So too do shifts in the sources of productivity growth. In the late 1990s workers' efficiency rose thanks both to rapid investment, particularly in information technology (IT), and to innovation, again mainly in IT. Hence the conventional view that America's productivity miracle was based on its ability to harness the power of computers. 奇怪的商业周期使得了解美国的基本生产率增长情况变得更为困难。在生产率增长的根源上有太多的改变。在1990年代末，由于急速投资，尤其是在信息技术（IT），以及再次以IT为主的创新导致工人生产效率的上升。因此，一般认为美国的生产率奇迹是基于其有能力驾驭电脑的能量。 Time to upgrade the PC 是时候升级您的个人电脑了 After 2001, however, productivity gains had less to do with investment or information technology directly. Messrs Oliner, Sichel and Stiroh show that productivity growth was spread more broadly across industries and was partly the result of the reallocation of resources between firms. 然而，2001年以后，在投资或者信息技术的生产力受益已下降。奥利纳、西切尔以及斯提洛先生们表示生产率的增长被更为广泛的在企业间传播，并且部分是由于资源在企业间的重新分配。 Is this good or bad news? Optimists reckon the dispersion makes sense. Just as the efficiency-enhancing effect of steam power or electricity took years to seep through the broader economy, so the IT revolution is now changing business processes, and boosting productivity, throughout the economy. But worrywarts fret that the ingredients of the 1990s productivity boom are missing. Capital spending has been sluggish and is now falling. By some measures the pace of innovation in IT has slowed. John Fernald of the San Francisco Fed points out that the rate at which computer and software prices are falling relative to other overall prices—a crude gauge of IT innovation—has slowed from 8.75% a year in the late 1990s to 6%. 这消息是好是坏？乐观主义者估计散布是有意义的。正如蒸汽动力或者电力的效果就是使得较广的经济体的生产力效率长时间的持续增长。所以IT创新正在改变整个经济的业务流程，增进整个经济的生产率。但是杞人忧天者苦恼1990年代的生产率暴涨的原因消失了。资本支出一直不振且正呈下降趋势。从某些指标上来看，IT创新步伐已放慢。旧金山联储银行总裁 约翰·费尔纳德 指出计算机和软件的定价相对低于其他综合价格（其为衡量IT创新的数据），由1990年代的8.75％下降到了现在的6％。 For the moment, the consensus among academic experts seems to be that America's trend rate of productivity growth is below the blistering pace of 2002-04, perhaps slightly lower than in the late 1990s, but well above the 1.5% average of the previous two decades. Messrs Oliner, Sichel and Stiroh, for instance, reckon trend productivity growth is around 2.25%. But no one is very sure. And if unemployment continues to fall while the economy remains weak, the more nervous the productivity gurus will become. 目前，专家学者的共识似乎是美国的生产率增长趋势低于2002年到2004年时猛烈的步伐，或许略低于1990年代后期，但远高于二十年前的平均增长率1.5％。例如奥利纳、西切尔以及斯提洛先生们估计生产率增长趋势在2.25％左右。但是没有人能确切的知道究竟是多少。但是如果当经济仍然疲软时，失业率继续下降，那些推崇生产率指标的人将会变得更为紧张。 Canada's seal hunt－On thin ice
[2007-04－07]Canada's seal hunt－On thin ice 译者：韩斌 Canada's seal hunt
加拿大海豹猎杀 On thin ice 薄冰上Apr 4th 2007 From The Economist print edition Global warming endangers a grisly ritual 全球性变暖将危及到可怕的惯例 THE activists have armed themselves with helicopters, video cameras and outrage. The hunters have their sharp hooks and blunt clubs, often combined into a single sinister-looking instrument of Norwegian design known as a hakapik. Canada's seal-hunting season officially began on April 2nd along with the usual row between those who denounce it as senseless cruelty and those who defend it as a traditional and necessary part of local livelihoods. Thanks to global warming, however, the argument might soon become redundant. 动物保护者已经用直升机、摄像机以及暴力武装好自己。猎人经常将其锐利的猎钩和粗硬的棍棒组合成一个挪威人设计并称其为hakapik的看似可怕的工具。加拿大海豹猎杀季节于4月2号正式开始，伴随而来的是那些谴责其为愚蠢的残暴行为的人和那些辩护其为当地生活中代代相传下来必要一部分的人之间惯常的连续争吵。但由于全球变暖，这样的争辩也许将会成为多余。 This year there has been less of the usual footage of burly men bashing small furry skulls and of blood smeared across the ice floes. That is not because the hunters have become less aggressive, but because suitable seals have become scarcer. Thanks to an unusually warm winter, the ice is melting early in the southern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, where hunting began this week. The seal pups on which the hunt preys are reared on the ice until they are old enough to swim. So the premature thaw has drowned them—before the hunters had the chance to kill many 今年少了平日那些魁梧的猎人猛击海豹毛皮稀少的头部以及鲜血流淌于冰川之间的场景。那并不是因为猎人变得没有侵略性，而是因为适合被猎杀的海豹越来越少。由于异常的暖冬，本周正式开始狩猎的圣劳伦斯湾南部的冰雪已经开始融化了。海豹小仔被抚养仔冰里面，以捕获的猎物为食，一直到它们长大了并会游泳为止。如此过早的解冻使得在猎人有机会猎杀许多海豹之前就已经淹死它们了。 The government argues that the hunt brings income to struggling fishing communities. The sealers add that it helps to preserve diminished fish stocks (though scientists dispute that). But even in Newfoundland, the province most involved, it benefits only 6,000 people, according to the government's own reckoning. The total value of the pelts landed during last year's bumper hunt was C$33m ($29m). Moreover, the government helps to make the pursuit profitable by handing out sealing licences almost free, although it charges high fees to fishermen. 政府辩称狩猎可以给艰难的捕鱼业团体带来收入。海豹猎人补充说道：那将有利于帮助阻止鱼类资源的减少（虽然科学家否认这一点）。但即使在纽芬兰省，根据政府自己的计算那也最多舍得6000人得益于此。在去年的狩猎丰收中获得的毛皮总价值是3300万加元（2900万美元）。此外，政府几乎免费的为这以有利可图的职业颁发海豹猎杀执照，然而对渔民的收费却很高。 But campaigners against seal hunting are not wholly beyond reproach either. Few bother to make it clear that the killing of the youngest pups with fluffy white pelts has been banned for 20 years. They also make it sound as if the seals are endangered. In fact, the seal population has tripled since the 1970s. 但是竞选者反对海豹猎杀也不完全是无可非议的责备。不麻烦弄清楚的是杀死小海豹而获得白色绒毛皮已经被禁止了20年了。他们还尤其强调以防止危及道海豹。实际上，自从1970年代以来，海豹的数量已经增至三倍了。 This year, because of the higher natural mortality among pups in the south, Canada's Department of Fisheries has reduced the quota for the hunt to 270,000 seals, from 335,000 last year. Most of these will come from colder waters, both in the northern Gulf of Saint Lawrence and off the coast of Labrador, where there is still plenty of ice. 今年由于南部的小海豹自然死亡率较高，加拿大渔业部门已将猎杀海豹配额从去年的335000只减少到270000只。绝大部分将源自寒冷水域，都在有着丰富的冰资源的圣劳伦斯湾北部以及拉布拉多海岸边。 The sealers in those areas tend to hunt with rifles, and so do not provide such good fodder for media campaigns. The hakapik-wielders of the southern Gulf, meanwhile, are becoming an endangered species themselves. Only two of 40 eligible boats from the region bothered to join in the hunt on the first day, because of the shortage of prey. For four out of the past five years, there has been less ice than usual. Nature, or at least climate change, seems to have it in for seals and their clobberers alike. 这些地区的海豹狩猎人更倾向于使用来福枪猎杀海豹，这样也就不会给舆论界争论提供好的素材。充斥用hakapik强权猎杀的南部海湾同时也正使其成为海豹濒危物种地区。由于猎物的数量不足，在正式开始狩猎的第一天，四十艘地方船只中只有两艘船加入到狩猎行列中。在过去5年中有4次哪里的冰都比正常的少。自然，或者至少是气候变化似乎是在为海豹的悲惨鸣不平。 Trade－Pyrrhic victory[2007-04-07]Trade－Pyrrhic victory
译者：韩斌
Trade
贸易 Pyrrhic victory
得不偿失的胜利 Apr 4th 2007 From The Economist print edition America's trade deal with South Korea may be the last gasp for its free-trade project 美国与韩国的贸易协定将是其自由贸易计划的最后一喘 THE negotiators can pat themselves on the back as many times as they like, but that doesn't make bilateral trade deals good economic policy. This week's announcement that America and South Korea are to create a free-trade area that will link the world's largest and 12th-largest economies marks the most ambitious trade agreement America has concluded since NAFTA, more than a decade ago. It is being spun by both governments as an historic achievement, and it certainly has its good points. Almost all tariffs are being scrapped within three years of the agreement coming into force, with others to go after that—though as ever the most contentious areas, such as rice, have been left out altogether, or will be handled much more slowly, as with beef and trucks. But the hype ignores the serious side-effects of agreements of this type. 谈判者可以随时轻拍他们自己的后背，想拍多少次就拍多少次，但这并不能制定出双边贸易好的经济政策。本周公报表明美国和韩国准备建立一个将连接全球最大的和第12大的经济体的自由贸易区。这是自从美国十多年前签订北美自由贸易协定以来最雄心勃勃的贸易协定。这作为历史性成就并由两国政府共同启动的，肯定是有其优点的。几乎所有关税将在协议签订生效三年之内被取消，其他的关税将在以后再解决。虽然以往最具有争议的区域，比如大米，将与牛肉和卡车一起被忽略或者被更为缓慢的处理。但是这类协定严重的忽视了危险的副作用。  The first malign effect is that this deal is inspired by, and will in turn help to inspire, an ever-thickening alphabet soup of bilateral and narrowly regional trade regimes. Such deals not only shut out less favoured countries from global commerce, but also undermine each other by creating a riot of incompatible regulation. This is particularly true in booming Asia. The perverse result is to hamper, not expedite, globalisation, which relies on the free flow of goods and services between many countries, not just along bilateral channels. 第一个恶性作用是这个协定是受驱动而建立的，并反过来帮助驱动一个不断增加的双边初步贸易诉讼以及狭隘的区域性贸易制度。这样的协定不仅仅是将那些在全球贸易中不受宠爱的国家拒之门外，而且还通过创造不相容的混乱章程来互相败坏。这在急速发展的亚洲尤为严重。倒行逆施的结果是阻碍了全球化的发展，而不是加快其发展。全球化依赖的是许多国家之间商品和劳务的自由流通，而不是仅仅依靠双边渠道。 The second problem is that all this bilateral effort saps some of the impetus for genuine multilateral trade negotiation (though there is a counter-argument: if the Doha round were not sinking into the sand, countries like Peru and South Korea would be less keen on bilateral agreements). Either way, stagnation in the multilateral arena is the flip-side of deals like the US-South Korean one. 第二个问题是这一切双边努力扼杀了一些真正的多边贸易谈判的动力（虽然有一个反论点：如果多哈回合没有失败的话，像秘鲁和韩国这样的国家将会较少的热衷于双边协定）。不论如何，停滞在多边领域是如同 美－韩 一样的从另一方面的协定。 But, no matter what one thinks of the merits of the Korean deal, the cause of free trade in America is now in serious trouble. Approval of the agreement is by no means certain in a Democratic-controlled Congress (see article) that is sceptical of all trade deals—and some of whose members would very much like to rewrite NAFTA. The deal may also have a hard time winning approval in the South Korean parliament. 但是不管想到韩国协定有什么优点，美洲自由贸易的起因正处于严重的麻烦之中。批准这一协定并不代表是一个民主控制的，并怀疑一切贸易协定的国会。其部分成员也很想重新改写北美自由贸易协定。这项协定也可能难以赢得韩国国会的批准。 Slow track 慢进程 The urgency with which the deal was struck, in frantic negotiations last weekend, was a symptom of this. The deal had to be notified to Congress by April 1st if it were to have any chance of passing, since that was the latest date for deals to be eligible for “fast-track” procedures, which limit debate and impose a straight yes or no vote on a trade agreement. Fast-track expires at the end of June, and the urgency comes because no one expects that Congress will renew it—and without it, trade deals are doomed. That, presumably, will now be the fate of the US-Malaysia free-trade deal, which could not be completed in time. 这一协定已被紧迫的提上议程，上周末的紧急谈判可能是个征兆。这项协定已于4月1号提交给国会审议，看是否有通过的机会，因为那是这项协定可以选择“快速通道”程序的最后日期，那将限制辩论并且强制直接地对贸易协定选择批准或者不批准。快速通道将在六月底结束，这很紧迫因为没有人希望国会将其延长。如果不延长的话，贸易协定将被宣布是否被批准。估计那将成为美国－马来西亚自由贸易协定的命运，其将不能按时完成。 The expiry of fast-track, of course, also has further dire implications for the Doha round, as if its chances were not bleak enough already. Congress is plainly in a protectionist mood, as the impasse over fast-track shows. The president has tried to woo it, with promises of increased “trade-adjustment assistance”, a package of benefits aimed at helping retrain workers who lose their jobs as a result of increased foreign competition, and offering to toughen the labour standards required of trade partners. This week, he also got tough on trade with China. So far, though, no luck. 快速通道期了当然也使得多哈回合蒙上进一步不确定性的涵义，似乎多哈回合成功的机会还不够渺茫。如快速通道僵局所显示的，国会现正处于一种简单的贸易保护主义态度。总统试图拉拢以争取更多的“贸易调整援助”，这一系列援助旨在帮助再培训那些因为增加的国外竞争而失去工作的工人们，并提供完善贸易合伙人要求的劳工标准。本周，他也采取了强硬的对华贸易政策。到目前为止，收效甚微。 The Australian economy——Downwonde
[2007-3-29]The Australian economy——Downwonde The Australian economy 译者：韩斌
澳大利亚经济 Downwonder 失望 Mar 29th 2007 | SYDNEY From The Economist print edition The “lucky country” may not be so for too much longer “幸运国度”将不再长久 AUSTRALIA may lie towards the bottom of the map, but its economy has been top of most rankings of developed countries in recent years. Despite the deflation of its housing bubble and a severe drought, the kangaroo economy keeps bouncing along. It is now in its 16th year of unbroken expansion, during which time it has grown at an average annual rate of 3.6%, well above the OECD average of 2.5%. 澳大利亚也许坐落于接近世界地图的最下边，但是近年来她的经济已经跻身于发达国家的前列。尽管其房地产泡沫的紧缩以及严重的干旱，但是袋鼠经济仍保持着跳跃似的增长。如今已是其持续扩张的第16年，期间年均增长速度达3.6％，远高于经济合作与开发组织的平均水平2.5％。 This resilience is partly its just deserts. The government has kept its budget in surplus, the central bank has largely kept inflation in check, and structural reforms have helped the economy handle shocks. But Australia also owes a lot to good luck. As a large commodity producer, it has been blessed by a surge in the prices of its exports thanks to booming global demand, notably from China. The country's terms of trade (the price of its exports divided by its imports) have leapt by 30% over the past three years to their highest level for over 50 years (see left-hand chart). 这样的活力在某种程度上来说并非运气。政府保持政府预算盈余，中央银行基本上控制通货膨胀压力，结构改革可以帮助经济处理经济震荡。但是澳大利亚也有赖于好运。作为一个大型的商品出口国，澳大利亚在其出口价格上涨中尝到了不少甜头，这都因为全球——尤其是中国需求的激增。澳大利亚的贸易条件（出口价格除以进口价格）已跃居30％，已超过三年来的最高点成为50年的最高水平。  The timing could not have been better. The commodities boom has helped to cushion the economy just as the housing sector has stumbled. Without it, home prices and consumer spending would have fallen by much more. In New South Wales, one of the states least touched by mining, average home prices are 10% below their 2004 peak; in parts of Sydney they fell by 20%. But nationwide house-price inflation was propped up by a 40% surge in Perth last year, thanks to the minerals boom. 不可能有更好的时机了。商品增长热潮有助于缓和楼市低迷对经济的冲击。若非如此，楼市和消费市场将会更加糟糕。新南威尔士是一个几乎没有矿产的州之一，那里的平均国内价格大概低于2004年最高水平10％；悉尼多处下跌了20％。但是去年在佩思，由于矿物增长热潮的原因全国性的房价通货膨胀直接激增了40％。 Indeed, Australia's GDP understates the economic benefits of the commodities boom. It measures the volume of goods and services produced in Australia, not the amount that can be purchased there. But thanks to its improved terms of trade, Australia gets more for its wares than it did. Its real gross domestic income has grown by an average of 4.5% over the past four years (see right-hand chart). 的确，澳大利亚的国内生产总值低估了由于商品增长热潮而带来的经济利益。它只计算了澳大利亚在货品和服务方面的产出，而非可供销售的金额。但由于其改善的贸易条件，澳大利亚在商品方面获得比以前更多的利益。其实际国内总收入在过去四年中平均增长4.5％。 Despite the enormous gain in its terms of trade, Australia still runs a huge current-account deficit, close to 6% of GDP in the fourth quarter. Its export volumes have grown by only 1.5% a year since 2000, down from an annual average of 8% in the 1990s. Farm exports have been hurt by drought; manufactures by the rise in the exchange rate to a ten-year high. But the biggest disappointment has been in minerals. Thanks to past underinvestment, Australia cannot get as much stuff out of the ground or onto ships as it would like. Coal, for example, is Australia's biggest export, accounting for one-fifth of its foreign earnings. But its sales are held back by the lack of port capacity. Outside the port of Newcastle, a record 70 ships are waiting to load coal bound for Asia. 尽管从其贸易条件中获得巨大的利益，但澳大利亚仍有着大量的经常帐户赤字，在第四季度接近其国内生产总值的6％。其出口量增长幅度从1990年代的平均增长8％下降到自2000年来仅仅年增长1.5％。农产品出口受到了干旱的影响；制成品出口同样也受到了汇率上涨到十年来最高水平的影响。但是最糟糕的莫过于矿产出口。由于归去投资不足，澳大利亚不可能依她想要的那样从土地里得到足够多的原材料或装船出口。例如，煤矿是澳大利亚最大的出口业务，占其整个出口收入的20％。但是煤矿的出口受到了港口容量不足的限制。纽卡斯尔港口外，有70艘船等待着将煤矿运往亚洲。 Few Australian economists lose sleep over its current account any more. The country has run a deficit in all but one of the past 50 years.Many people argue the government has done all it can to reduce the gap, running a budget surplus and encouraging personal saving, to no great effect. The deficit therefore reflects the private decisions of “consenting adults”. 几乎没有澳大利亚经济学家再因为经常往来帐户而失眠。在过去50年中只有一年未有经常帐户赤字。许多人认为政府竭尽所能以减少差距，经营盈余和鼓励个人储蓄是没有多大效果的。赤字因此反映了私人“成熟的承诺”的决定。 But the government cannot wash its hands of the deficit quite so easily. Saul Eslake, the chief economist at ANZ Bank, accuses the government of wasting the windfall revenue from the commodities boom. Most of it has been squandered on vote-seeking tax cuts, he calculates, not on bolstering the economy's growth prospects. More spending on infrastructure and education could have relieved bottlenecks, and a bigger budget surplus would have shielded the economy against a future downturn in prices. 但政府也不是完全没有责任。澳大利亚新西兰银行的首席经济学家Saul Eslake指责政府浪费了从商品增长热潮中获得的意外收入。如他所计算的，大部分被浪费在政府为获选民支持而减税上，而不是在支撑经济的长期增长上。更多投资于基础设施和教育可以缓解瓶颈，以及若保持更多的预算盈余，可令经济应付进一步价格下滑的冲击。 Instead Australia's economy has been stretched taut. It is short of workers as well as infrastructure: at 4.6%, unemployment is close to a 32-year low (down from almost 11% in 1992) and inflation is above the Reserve Bank's target of 2-3%. Some analysts expect the central bank to lift its interest rate from 6.25% on April 4th. 而澳大利亚的经济是伸展拉紧的。劳动力同基础设施建设一样，同样缺乏：失业率从1992年接近11%跌至目前的是4.6%,是32年来最低点.同时通货膨胀率高于澳大利亚储备银行2-3%的通胀目标。一些分析家预计四月四号澳大利亚中央银行将在6.25％的基础上上调其利率。 Most worrying, the economy's speed limit has fallen. Productivity growth has slowed to an annual rate of only 1.2% since 2000, from 2.4% in the 1990s. In the long run, a nation's standard of living depends on its productivity. The commodity boom has so far concealed the slowdown, but even if prices stay high, further gains on this scale seem unlikely. Without further policy reform, the Australian kangaroo risks turning into a sleepy koala. 最令人担心的是经济增长速度有所下降。生产力年均增长速度从1990年代的2.4％下降到自2000年来的仅仅1.2％。从长远来看，一个国家的生活水平取决于她的生产力水平。商品热潮掩盖了生产力放缓的事实，但即使价格仍然处于高位，似乎不大可能进一步上升。如果没有进一步改革政策，澳大利亚袋鼠似的跳跃性经济增长将有转变成考拉似的沉睡性经济增长的危险。 A look into the future[2007-3-22] A look into the future ——深入期货
译者：韩斌 Exchanges 交易所 A look into the future A takeover battle highlights a lucrative corner of the financial markets Time to take the credit
[2007-03-17]Time to take the credit 信用贷款前途一片光明 译者：韩斌 Microfinance 小额信贷 Time to take the credit 信用贷款前途一片光明 Mar 15th 2007 From The Economist print edition Aid donors have shown microfinance can work. They should now leave their successes behind 捐赠人已经证实小额信贷是可行的。他们现在要做的是将成功暂放脑后。  SUCCESS has many fathers. No wonder, then, that paternity suits are flying in microfinance—lending small amounts to help the poor pull themselves out of poverty. Thanks first to charities and, later, international financial institutions (IFIs) like the World Bank, microfinance has been shown to work (see article). Now philanthropists such as Bill Gates and Pierre Omidyar, the founder of eBay, are using their own charities to pour money into the field. So, increasingly, is the for-profit sector, including “socially responsible” investors and capitalists more interested in the bottom line than the poverty line. 正如失败是成功之母一样，成功也有许多父亲。像贷出小额资金帮助穷人脱贫这样的做法在小额信贷中非常流行，令人一点也不惊奇。首先要感谢的是慈善机构，再者就是像世界银行这样的国际金融机构（IFIS），实际已经证明小额信贷是可行的。像Bill Gates 以及易趣的创始人Pierre Omidyar这样的大慈善家们现在利用他们自己的慈善事业将大量的资金倾注到这一领域。拥有“社会责任感”的投资者和资本家都越来越关注商业利润而并非贫困线，这逐渐的使得这一领域成为一个牟利区。 Microfinance is a promising way to get credit to parts of the economy that are starved of capital. So it is a pity that all these lenders are competing to support the same, small group of microfinance institutions that cater to the most creditworthy borrowers. It would be better for the poor if the IFIs and donors left the best credit risks to profit-seeking lenders and concentrated instead on those still stuck outside the system. 小额信贷给那些正苦于资本饥荒的地方经济带来了光明。然而可惜的是，所有的出借人都争着支持小型小额信贷机构去满足那些信用最高的借款人。如果国际金融机构和捐赠人将最好的信用风险留给寻求利益的出借人，转而专注于滞留在系统之外的人，这将对穷人好的多。 Micromanagement 微管理 No doubt that sounds ungrateful. Microfinance is in vogue thanks partly to the IFIs, which provided grants, loans and training to untested microcredit institutions. The private sector shunned the risk—out of ignorance, a lack of expertise and fears that making money from the poor would look predatory. The pioneering work of donors means there are now some 10,000 microfinance institutions lending an average of less than $300 to 40m poor borrowers worldwide. 勿庸置疑，这听起来忘恩负义。多亏了部分提供赠款、借款以及培训小额信贷机构的国际金融机构，小额信贷才这么流行。出于无知、缺乏专业知识和害怕从穷人身上赚钱会显得是弱肉强食，私营部门避开了该风险。捐赠者的先锋派工作的结果就是现在将近10000家小额信贷机构向全球4000万贫困借款人平均每人贷出不多于300美元的贷款。 As a result, microfinance has become profitable. Top-tier microlenders no longer need subsidies or even commercial loans from IFIs or philanthropists. ProCredit, made up of 19 microfinance banks in countries from Moldova to Ecuador, was established in 1998 by some IFIs. Now wildly successful, it boasts over 2.2m customer accounts and arrears by volume of a minuscule 1.2%. So many of its banks make money that it could even list its shares on the stockmarket. 结果，小额贷款变成是有利可图的。处于领域顶端的小额信贷机构不再需要从国际金融机构或者慈善家那里获得补贴甚至商务贷款。ProCredit银行是由一些国际金融机构在1998年建立的，并且从摩尔多瓦到厄瓜多尔国家设立了19家小额信贷银行。ProCredit银行现在非常的成功，她吹嘘拥有220万客户帐户，并且欠款额只有1.2％。她的许多银行都是如此的赚钱，以至于她甚至可以在股票市场上市。 The Inter-American Development Bank has acknowledged that the best microlenders can finance themselves either by gathering deposits to finance loans or by attracting commercial investors. It is busily selling equity stakes in its portfolio of microfinance investments. But other development groups are less willing to cut the apron strings. They continue to devote scarce aid dollars to the microlenders that need them least. Having nurtured these outfits when for-profit groups would not, they now want to bask in their successes. Some philanthropists, too, prefer to take the safe route and invest in stable, profitable top-tier microfinance groups. 美洲开发银行也承认最佳的小额信贷机构可以通过聚集存款来供给贷款或者吸引商业投资的方式来供给他们资金。美洲开发银行正忙于卖她在小额信贷股权投资中的股票。但是其他的发展集团不愿意放手。他们继续将本已稀缺的捐赠资金奉献给最不需要资金的小额信贷机构。以前那些逐利的机构不愿贷款给小额信贷机构的时候，他们贷了，所以现在他们在享受他们的成功。一些慈善家也宁愿走些安全路线投资于持续性的、有利可图的并处于领域顶端的小额信贷机构。 This trophy lending is harmful. By subsidising microfinance groups that do not need it, aid bodies and philanthropists discourage private money, which cannot compete with their soft terms. In the long run, this harms microfinanciers, because it slows their integration into the financial-services industry and thus hampers their transformation into lenders able to stand alone. 这种纯粹以寻求利润的贷出是有害的。补贴那些无需补贴的小额信贷机构,阻止了私人资金的进入，因为私人资金竞争不过这些援助机构和慈善机构的软条款。在长期的发展阶段，这损害了小额信贷机构，因为这减慢了他们集中资金投入金融服务行业，因而这也妨碍了他们转换为独立的小额信贷服务机构。 Aid money is better spent where commercial cash fears to tread—such as on the next generation of microfinance institutions. Subsidies are often needed to lend to the rural poor, where small, scattered populations make it hard for commercial lenders to cover their costs. Donor funds could be used to invest in technology such as mobile payments, which promise to cut the cost of providing microcredit. Top microfinance institutions themselves may need help in expanding into insurance and other financial products for the poor, as well as in tapping the capital markets. IFIs, in particular, can press foreign governments to get rid of interest-rate caps and other misguided regulations that impede microlending. 捐赠资金投资于商业资金不敢进入的领域应该是比较好的选择。比如投资新兴的小额信贷机构。补助金应该借贷给那些乡村里的穷人，因为乡村里分散的人群使得商业资金投资机构很难平衡他们的成本。捐赠资金可以被用来投资如同移动付款这样的技术型投资，这将降低小额信贷机构的成本。处于领域顶端的小额信贷机构本身除了在为穷人增加信用保证以及其他金融产品方面需要帮助外，在进入资本市场方面也需要帮助。尤其是国际金融机构可以敦促国外政府去除妨碍小额信贷的利率上限以及其他被误导的条例。 Only a fraction of the world's 500m impoverished “micro-entrepreneurs” have access to the financial system. There is not enough donor or “socially responsible” money in the world to meet the demand. That's why microfinance needs private-sector capital. Aid agencies, philanthropists and well-meaning “social” investors can help attract it by investing only where commercial outfits will not. When the children come of age, the best parents step aside. 毕竟在全球5亿“小型企业家”中只有小部分可以成功地进入金融领域。全世界没有足够地捐赠资金或拥有“社会责任感”的资金来满足需求。这就是小额信贷需要私营机构资金的原因。捐赠办事处、慈善家和有名的“社会”投资家可以通过投资只有商业团体不去投资的领域来提高这一领域的吸引力。当小额信贷机构已经成熟以后，投资机构最好放手让他们独立成长。（当孩子长大了，家长最好放手） |
|
|
